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Bryson Crawls to First Place at Davis County Fair

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Friday found me at the Davis County Fair with my two grandchildren Bryson and Aurora. Adelaide entered Aurora in the baby contest as did Sarah with Bryson. No winners there. Sarah then entered Bryson in the crawling race. That was much more fun, at least for the adults. Bryson had to crawl across a stage towards his mother in a race with three other babies. Here are the photographs recording the event. The light and distance was confusing for the camera (or maybe for the photographer) so the pictures are not that great a quality. Click on the photographs for a larger image.


Bryson competes at the Davis County Fair
Bryson, in the yellow, looks over at the competition.

Bryson competes at the Davis County Fair
They’re off! Bryson takes an early lead.

Bryson competes at the Davis County Fair
Bryson is stalled and cries for help. No worries, the other competitors are stuck at the start.

Bryson competes at the Davis County Fair
Miss pink can’t get her engine in gear but blue and brown stripes has raced way ahead.
Sarah waves her cell phone in an effort to get Bryson to come to her.
Bryson hits the turbo charger and heads for the cell phone.

Bryson competes at the Davis County Fair
It is a photo-finish as Bryson storms in to take the checkered flag (and the cell phone).

Bryson competes at the Davis County Fair
The winner! But the champion is more interested in the cell phone.

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Missionary Dan Email #27 from Ulaanbaatar, Mongolia

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Presented here are portions of Elder Daniel Willoughby’s twenty seventh email from the Mongolia Ulaanbaatar Mission. If anyone wishes to send Daniel a message, write it in the comments and I will make sure he receives it.


Daniel on a mount overlooking Ulaanbataar.
Daniel (right) on a mount overlooking Ulaanbataar.

The Difference In Derek

Thanks for all the awesome pictures. I really enjoyed them. The only difference I can see in Derek is that… his bow tie is cricked…. Oh wait that’s a tie. Ummm… he shaved that day? He started eating baby food? He isn’t wearing a missionary tag? I don’t know looks the same to me.

Missionary Work

This week felt like it was a month. It was a really strange feeling. Our part-member’s husband, Tortogdokh, got baptized this week. He was an awesome investigator the whole time we taught him. He had a great baptismal day as well. His wife was excited for him to become a member and so were some other missionaries that had tried to get him baptized for months.


Baptism of Tortogdokh
Baptism of Tortogdokh

While we were waiting for our ALA family to get home on Thursday we decided to climb up the mountain near their house. We raced to the top, took a few pictures and then headed back down. When we got to the bottom another member that lived in that area called after us. We at first ignored him because it isn’t unusual for people to call after us. We decided to stop and see what he wanted. He turned out to be a member of the Church who was baptized about 8 years ago. He invited us in and fed us really fast as we listened to what he had to say. He had a son that served a mission as well. He hadn’t been going to church lately because he had moved so we invited him back. It was great that our little hike turned out to be really productive.

We also were able to go on an exchange Friday to double our efforts with the work. My companion went with the new senior couple missionaries and I went with a mini missionary. The day was great and we accomplished a lot. The senior couple also really enjoyed themselves and impressively could bear their testimonies quite well.

Our recently baptized member invited us over to dinner yesterday. We went with some missionaries that are going home this week. His wife was their new member about a year ago and the missionaries came to say good bye. The food was good but my companion and I unfortunately got food poisoning. So last night was quite the adventure with our stomach’s discarding the food as it felt it needed to. We originally planned to go to the country side today, but instead did our best to recover. We are both doing good now, just a little tired.

The youth right now go to mutual and things like that. They had youth conference about 2 months ago. They seem to do similar things as we do in America. Most of them are starting up school here soon.
Love, Elder Willoughby
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Missionary Dan Email #26 from Ulaanbaatar, Mongolia

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Presented here are portions of Elder Daniel Willoughby’s twenty sixth email from the Mongolia Ulaanbaatar Mission. If anyone wishes to send Daniel a message, write it in the comments and I will make sure he receives it.


Daniel ready to baptize Anojin in Ulaanbataar.
Daniel ready to baptize Anojin in Ulaanbataar.

Wedding

Those pictures of the wedding turned out great. Congratulations Alex! I also really like the picture of Sarah and Derek with the sun. It looks professionally done. Thanks for all the emails they are always fun to read.

Missionary Work

So this week we had one of our less-active member’s daughters baptized. She gave a talk at her daughter’s baptism so it was a good experience for the family. It was neat as we traveled to her baptism. We started with just Anojin, the one being baptized, and left her house. We gathered two of her friends shortly after and continued on. Her brother was walking home so we picked him up as well. When we got off the bus we met one investigator and member and headed towards the church. We helped a car that was stuck out of the mud and by then two of our less active members had joined us. It was really neat to walk the rest of the way to church with so many people to go to the baptism.

Sunday was similar, many of our less actives came and over half of the new members in our area came as well. It was a great fast and testimony meeting and I was glad that so many of the people we’d been serving were able to be there. The Lord has greatly blessed us in our efforts and I know He always gives us help when we ask.

Other exciting news is that we walked down a street and a member that just recently got out of prison came up to us and said he wanted to go back to church. That doesn’t happy very often. :) We will continue to do the best we can. Enjoy the awesome pictures!

To Adelaide

Its really cool you read my emails to Aurora. It’d be sweet to have her know my name. That reminds me of a little kid in the old ward I was in. We visited his house a lot and played with him. He was just barely starting to talk. After I was transferred and I saw him at church, he ran up to me and said, “My older brother, my older brother, my older brother.” It was way cool and he continues to do it every time I see him. It is way cute (I usually don’t say the word cute but it describes it well). Thanks for the great email!

To Kelsey S.

Hey! How are you? So it seems like they discontinued the pouch system here in Mongolia and the only mail they now send is strictly church business. I think my companion knows how to send letters through the Mongolian mail system so I’ll see if I can do that today. Thanks for your continued support. Until then, keep smiling and tell Jake (my brother) to calm down. Oh and tell Paul to take a nap. :)

Love, Elder Willoughby
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1.3 Billion Wind Turbines Needed to Replace Coal

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McFadden Ridge Wind Project

Tennessee wind turbines similar to McFadden Ridge
Tennessee wind turbines similar to McFadden Ridge

Construction of Rocky Mountain Power’s McFadden Ridge I wind project is underway in Albany County, Wyoming, near the towns of McFadden and Rock River. The project consists of 19 General Electric wind turbines, capable of generating a combined 28.5 megawatts of electricity.

See the Update section at the end of this post for a recalculation of the number of wind turbines needed to replace coal.

1.3 Billion Wind Turbines Needed

Now for a little back-of-the-envelope math. The McFadden Ridge project has 19 wind turbines producing 28.5 megawatts of electricity. Each wind generator therefore produces 1.5 megawatts. In the United States in 2007 coal was responsible for generating 2,016,456 gigawatts of power (see USA Electricity Generation 2007 Chart). As 1 gigawatt equals 1,000 megawatts you would need 1.3 billion (2,016,456,000 megawatts / 1.5) wind turbines to replace coal. And coal only accounts for 48% of electricity production.

651 Million More Wind Turbines

Petroleum liquids (49,505,000 megawatts), petroleum coke (16,234,000 megawatts), natural gas (896,590,000 megawatts), and other gases (13,453,000 megawatts) account for a total of 975,782,000 megawatts. To replace these sources of power you would need an additional 650,521,333 wind turbines. In these calculations we are not replacing the 21% of electricity generated from nuclear power. Even so, removing fossil fuels from the equation mandates the need for 2 billion wind turbines. And remember, wind power costs twice as much as electricity from coal.

Growing Electricity Needs

Rocky Mountain Power says:

To meet the growing electricity needs of its customers, Rocky Mountain Power is investing in new generation, transmission and distribution facilities in Wyoming and other states, as well as purchasing the output from wind projects owned by other entities.

These wind projects are to meet the growing electricity needs of its customers, not to replace coal generating plants. Construction of the McFadden Ridge I wind project is not even included in the 2 billion number cited. The wind turbines being constructed today are to meet growing demand, some of which will be met by even more expensive solar power. I would be very careful about trusting politicians that want to eliminate fossil fuels without giving an explanation of how we are going to replace them with the needed 2 billion wind turbines.

But whatever happens, please don’t put me in charge of turbine maintenance.

Update

A co-worker, Josh, pointed out to me that my calculations were wrong. First the 1.5 megawatts output of the wind turbine needs to be multiplied by the number of hours in a year. Then the ratio of the maximum possible output to the typical output, called the capacity factor, needs to be calculated. For our purposes I will use a capacity factor of 30%. So now we arrive at the following:

1.5 megawatts x 24 hours x 365 days x 0.3 capacity factor = 3,942 megawatt hours.

Now with a more realistic divisor we arrive at the number of wind turbines needed to replace coal:

2,016,456,000 megawatt hours / 3,942 megawatt hours = 511,531 wind turbines.

I still don’t want to be in charge of turbine maintenance.

External Articles

This list is updated occasionally, with newer additions listed first.

Life Expectancy and Health Care Plans

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House Democrats' Health Plan.
Organizational Chart of the House Democrats’ Health Plan. Click to enlarge. Courtesy Rep. John Boehner

Health Care Debate

There has been considerable debate over health care of late and all manner of statistics presented to bolster certain points of view. I have read through some of this material but in the end I still hold the same ideas as I have held for years. I like the health care I have and I believe many millions feel the same way about their health care. Hence my view is that the answer to our current system is not a massive disruption but a gradual change to build on what works and implement improvements that are tried and tested over time.

I’ve been thinking about some wild statements that have been made that claim that the “U.S. health care system is broken” and that we should have “health care delivered the same way as countries like the United Kingdom and Canada.” I lived in England for 28 years so I am aware of and experienced health care there. I’ve lived in the U.S. for over 28 years and have had occasion to partake of health care in this fine nation. As I degenerate into greater decrepitude no doubt I will need even more health care in the future.

Life Expectancy

Now, if the U.S. health care system is so sick and socialized medicine so superior, one would think a large discrepancy would show up in life expectancy tables. Examining the CIA World Factbook 2008 estimates we find that in the United Kingdom life expectancy at birth is 78.7 years. For the U.S. the number is 78.06 years. Less than eight months difference. The U.S. stacks up very well considering that per capita violence, obesity, drunk driving, and illegal drug use is probably much higher than among Brits. Of course the United Kingdom does have soccer hooliganism that probably keeps their life expectancy down whereas the U.S. has millions of its population uninsured. I can only conclude that that these legions of uninsured are getting health care somewhere and that English soccer fans don’t hurt the national life expectancy as much as first thought.

Of course Canada weighs in with a healthy life expectancy of 80.34 years. Maybe we should copy their health care model. While we are immersed in our expectancy tables let us not stop at Canada but cast our eyes higher. Macau has the greatest life expectancy with 84.379 years. Notice the extra decimal place of accuracy in the years — Macau likes to get every last hour of life out of their citizens. Where is Macau? According to Wikipedia, Macau is a special administrative region of the People’s Republic of China. Macau lies on the western side of the Pearl River Delta, bordering Guangdong province in the north and facing the South China Sea in the east and south.

Macau

So perhaps we should adopt the Macau Healthcare Model or MHM and we will all live longer. Macau is served by one major public hospital, one major private hospital, a university hospital, and numerous health centers providing free basic medical care. Consultation in traditional Chinese medicine is also available (this must be what gives them the extra edge in life expectancy). The Health Bureau is responsible for coordinating the activities between the public and private organizations in the area of public health. The Macau Centre for Disease Control and Prevention monitors the operation of hospitals, health centers, and the blood transfusion center. It also handles the organization of care and prevention of diseases affecting the population, sets guidelines for hospitals and private health care providers, and issues licenses.

Should we adopt the MHM? On reflection I will stay with my 76 years of life expectancy and forgo those extra eight years. I am just too old and I am sick of politicians saying I have to change my health care that is working very well thank you. And for all those hankering for a MHM or the equivalent, why not scoot on over to the United Kingdom and grab yourself an extra eight months of life expectancy. Steer clear of the soccer hooligans and be sure to send me a postcard.

Related Articles

Mr. President, what’s the rush? — Mitt Romney writing in USA Today.
List of countries by life expectancy
Low Life Expectancy in the United States: Is the Health Care System at Fault? — Population Studies Center, University of Pennsylvania

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Missionary Dan Email #25 from Ulaanbaatar, Mongolia

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Presented here are portions of Elder Daniel Willoughby’s twenty fifth email from the Mongolia Ulaanbaatar Mission. If anyone wishes to send Daniel a message, write it in the comments and I will make sure he receives it.


Flooding in Ulaanbataar, Mongolia.
Flooding in Ulaanbataar, Mongolia.

Hello From Rainy Mongolia

Wow! Sarah has a neat hair cut. Everyone looks way happy and well. Bryson is getting really big. It sounds like Bear Lake was lots of fun as well.

Rainstorm

This week was quite an adventure. There was a huge rainstorm on Tuesday that flooded all the streets etc. We were teaching a lesson and the rain on the roof was so loud that we had to stop teaching for about 30 minutes. Luckily the bishop came with us to do work that day so we were able to escape getting soaked by the rain by riding in his car. The damage wasn’t too bad to the area and it is mostly back to normal now. I really like the picture I snapped of the fat man standing majestically in front of the flooded parking lot.

A Flood in Mongolia.
A Flood in Mongolia.

Missionary Work

I made a funny mistake when I called one of our investigators. When you call people you usually say, “Did you sleep well?” or “How did you sleep?” I accidentally added one letter and asked him, “Did you have a nice life?” We had a good laugh over that. Our investigator didn’t seem to notice that’s what I said. One of our members brought a nonmember friend to church. That is probably one of the best things members can do for missionaries. It was fun to meet her and talk to her. Missionary work continues on. I know it is Heavenly Father’s work and He really loves and helps all of His children.

To Melissa

I’m not sure I have many suggestions. Studying all the time was hard and made my head hurt but after awhile I got used to it. Steven, Jake, and Paul will know better suggestions for the language. I think it somewhat links to English so you can learn it by association with English words. There are some cool bikes to ride up on the third floor of the gym [of the MTC]. Oh and the far right part of the cafeteria has left-overs from previous meals. (That took me a long time to find :) ). Tell him to work hard and just keep going. He is doing great!

To Jason

Hey Jason! I’m doing great thanks for the comment. No I haven’t served in Darhan but if I do I’ll say “Hi” to your companions. That is way awesome that you had Mongolian companions that were brothers even. It would be way cool to meet them and tell them that I know you. Thanks again!

Love, Elder Willoughby

Related Articles

List of Daniel’s missionary posts.
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Missionary Dan Email #24 from Ulaanbaatar, Mongolia

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Mongolian baby.
Mongolian baby. Photo by Daniel.

Presented here are portions of Elder Daniel Willoughby’s twenty fourth email from the Mongolia Ulaanbaatar Mission. If anyone wishes to send Daniel a message, write it in the comments and I will make sure he receives it.

It’s exciting that Derek and Sarah are coming. Speaking of Derek… that reminds me. Every time I show the Mongolians the picture of Bryson they mention about how big his eyes are. They say literally “He scary big eyes with,” which means he has really big eyes. It always makes me laugh. I’ve been meaning to say that for like 2 months now.

This week I got to build my first ger. That was fun to see how it was done and stuff. It is way cool to see how they put their houses together and how they can move the entire thing in about 3 to 4 hours. I didn’t get any cool pictures of it so next time I make one I’ll do better at that. I had the fun job of standing in the middle and holding up the pole while everyone put in the roof support things. It’s hard to explain. Anyway it was fun.

Lots of our less active members came to church yesterday. That was exciting as it always is to see them come. We have other investigators progressing towards baptism. Within the next 3 weeks or so they should be ready. Also the bishop really liked the ward member list my companion and I finished up this week. He said it will be very useful as did a member of the Stake Presidency.

I this week through out Mongolian through spoke. It to me good was. To me better speaking Mongolian through became. Because I good goals accomplished. This week through out continue more good goals will do. I joy with. I Book of Mormon from reading better accent receive can. I language rules (grammar) better study will. Sometimes to me confuse become but to me better speak becoming. Maybe to Jake and Paul Mongolian through teach will I. Language this like is kind of. Joy with! (bye) Ha ha. That fun with was.

To Mom

I decided that you can wait till my birthday to send a package. :) I don’t need anything. Thanks for the great letters you write. How is Byron doing? When does he leave? What is his address?

Love, Elder Willoughby

Related Articles

List of Daniel’s missionary posts.
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Missionary Dan Email #23 from Ulaanbaatar, Mongolia

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Presented here are portions of Elder Daniel Willoughby’s twenty third email from the Mongolia Ulaanbaatar Mission. If anyone wishes to send Daniel a message, write it in the comments and I will make sure he receives it.


Nadaam Holiday..
Nadaam — the three games of men: Mongolian wrestling, horse racing, and archery.

Missionary Work

Thanks for all the emails! They are really exciting to read. The pictures are great as well. Thanks again. This week was great. My new companion Elder Henson is teaching me lots of great things and I’ve been accomplishing some great language goals. We had a good lesson with our new member’s husband. He isn’t a member yet but is working and improving. He has been struggling with alcohol so we are helping him to see the negative affects of it. He was really good to come to a fireside with his family. Later we set some goals with him on how he wants to improve. It was great and we felt the Spirit as we taught him.

We also have been working on contacting every member in the branch. With each missionary companionship contacting 10 or so members a week we’ll be able to contact them all this half transfer. It is always fun to go member searching to find out where they are. It is a big project but will be very helpful for the new bishop once completed.

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Missionary Dan Email #22 from Ulaanbaatar, Mongolia

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Presented here are portions of Elder Daniel Willoughby’s twenty second email from the Mongolia Ulaanbaatar Mission. If anyone wishes to send Daniel a message, write it in the comments and I will make sure he receives it.


Independence Day in Mongolia.
Independence Day in Mongolia. Daniel center.

Independence Day

Looks like the parade was cool — we had our own little one at the American embassy. We went there on the fourth of July and had a party. They had hamburgers and hot dogs which is the classic meal for that day. I saw some of the elders from my MTC group and got a picture. It was transfers that day also and I got a new companion. His name is Elder Henson, he is from Michigan and is really cool. We have a lot of things in common and he has taught me a lot of things already. It is helpful for me to have him explain parts of the language and give some tips and advice. I actually knew him well before because his apartment is basically in the same place as mine and we talked about stuff.

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