Poll Understates Support for Proposition 8

The California Field Poll published in newspapers yesterday significantly understates support for Proposition 8, according to ProtectMarriage.com Campaign Manager Frank Schubert. Schubert’s comments are based on a historic review of Field Poll data and a new study that compared polling to actual results in more than two dozen states, including California, where the marriage issue has appeared on the ballot.

ProtectMarriage.com’s study, released yesterday, shows that pollsters have under-estimated support for marriage measures by an average of seven percentage points in the 26 states studied. In some cases, polls have vastly under-stated support for traditional marriage by as much as 21 percentage points.

The state-by-state study looked at the same-sex marriage issue in 26 states where it has appeared on the ballot, dating back to the first campaign of its kind in Hawaii in 1998. Surveys published by news media outlets prior to an election under-estimated support for traditional marriage by an average of seven points. In only two states (Texas and South Carolina) did pre-election surveys accurately measure voter support for traditional marriage, and in both of those states support stood at 76%. Support for traditional marriage was under-estimated in 23 of the 26 states studied, ranging from a low of 3% in Kentucky and Oregon, to as high as 21% in North Dakota.

In 2000, the Field Poll itself underestimated support for Proposition 22 by at least eight percentage points. That initiative ended up winning with overwhelming voter support — capturing over 61% of the vote. Frank Schubert, who has twice been named the nation’s most valuable consultant by the American Association of Political Consultants, said:

Recent polls published by California media outlets claim that Proposition 8, restoring marriage in California as between a man and a woman, is trailing among voters. These polls, including the Field Poll released this week, suffer from the same historic problem that other polls on this subject around the country have had: they do not accurately reflect the true support for traditional marriage.
I can’t say for sure why polls almost always understate support for traditional marriage, but I believe it is because the media portrays same-sex marriage as being politically correct. Supporters of traditional marriage don’t want pollsters to consider them intolerant, so they mask their true feelings on the issue. The result is that support for traditional marriage rises considerably when voters cast their ballots in the privacy of the voter booth. It is my opinion that the same thing will happen in California when voters cast ballots on Proposition 8.

Earlier surveys from the L.A. Times poll and Survey USA poll have showed Proposition 8/ProtectMarriage.com with a slight lead, at 54% support.

Schubert said:

Our own internal surveys show that we are in a dead-heat on Proposition 8. The campaign manager for the No on 8 campaign has been quoted recently as saying the same thing. This race is very much up for grabs. It’s up to our campaign to convince voters of all the many reasons to restore marriage as between a man and a woman. I remain confident that we will do so.

Source: ProtectMarriage.com email.

Know the Facts

Voicing your support for Proposition 8 can sometimes be a bit intimidating, particularly when you don’t know all the facts. We’re sure you will be surprised to learn that many of your friends and neighbors share your support! Proposition 8 is about preserving marriage; it’s not an attack on the gay lifestyle. Proposition 8 doesn’t take away any rights or benefits from gays or lesbians in domestic partnerships. Under California law, “domestic partners shall have the same rights, protections and benefits” as married spouses. (Family Code §297.5.) There are no exceptions. Proposition 8 will not change this.

Townhall Meetings

The Proposition 8 Campaign has been busy hosting a series of townhall meetings throughout the state, providing a local forum for communities to discuss the importance of preserving traditional marriage as between one man and one woman. To date, there have been four townhall meetings in Fresno, Sonoma, San Joaquin and Napa Counties. Each event has been tremendously successful, energizing the community and arming attendees with information on how to get more involved to ensure Proposition 8 passes.

Drawing from between 200-600 attendees, the Protect Marriage Townhall Meetings have created an opportunity for voters to learn about Proposition 8 from leaders in their own community. In each host county, the Campaign has identified representatives from each of the major faith denominations, who then speak about why voting YES on Proposition 8 is such a crucial issue, from their faith’s perspective.

Upcoming townhall meetings include Los Angeles, Orange County and San Bernardino. For more information on a townhall meeting in your area, please contact info@protectmarriage.com.

Volunteers Needed

With November just around the corner and a likely close vote on Proposition 8 expected, volunteers can make the difference in this election. Proposition 8 is our last chance to protect the institution of marriage, to keep it from being radically redefined for all of society. You can help us tip the scales by volunteering on behalf of the Campaign.

This effort takes committed individuals working hard at the grassroots level. There are many different ways that you can help. Here’s just a sample:

• Walk precincts
• Phone voters
• Distribute literature to your friends and neighbors
• Donate
• Show your support through a yard sign or bumper sticker
• Recruit 10 new volunteers
• Write a letter to the editor

ACLU Donation

We know that everyday our opponents are busy raising millions of dollars that will be used to mislead our voters. Just recently, we heard of the ACLU’s $1.2 million donation to defeat Proposition 8 — the largest single donation to our opponents in this campaign.

Source: ProtectMarriage.com email.